Cast your mind back to 2007: stocks were roaring; credit spreads were asymptotically approaching zero; “CPDO” wasn’t a four-letter word; and Jay-Z caused a macroeconomic storm, eschewing the traditional benjis and flashing wads of €500 notes in the video for Blue Magic. This, along with a story (later denied) that Gisele Bundchen had demanded to be paid in euros instead of dollars, became a sign of an emerging trend: if rappers and supermodels were embracing the euro instead of the dollar, surely hedge funds and asset managers and SWFs would follow, right? Right? (Or, for the oh-so-hip-and-cynical contrarian set, it was the signal to short euros, because the prevalent weak-dollar trend had become accepted wisdom, c.f. the magazine cover indicator.)
Four years later, so much has changed. Now, reports the Economist – with the sort of glee for such things that only the Economist can summon – British grime artist Wiley has refused to be paid in euros, and is demanding to be paid in squids or greenbacks instead.
When the supermodels start following his lead, that’ll be the cue to start shorting EURUSD, because the hedge funds and asset managers and SWFs will inevitably follow, right? Right? (Or, for the oh-so-hip-and-cynical contrarian set, the signal to start buying euros, right? Right?)